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Loading the observation ledger…
Election night · November 3
Each race compares the polling average and my number with the count as it comes in. A race joins the tally once it is called or 95% counted. Counts are unofficial, entered by hand from each state's official results page, and linked on every row. My numbers are from 2026-10-27.
Counting starts the evening of November 3. Until then, this page shows the numbers the night will test.
| Race | Polls | Undertow | The count | Closer |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Senate | Talarico +1.8 | Talarico +5.4 | Not yet | Not yet |
| Iowa Senate | Hinson +1.9 | Hinson +1.2 | Not yet | Not yet |
| Maine Senate | Collins +0.2 | Jackson +2.0 | Not yet | Not yet |
| Alaska Senate | Peltola +2.0 | Peltola +3.6 | Not yet | Not yet |
| Ohio Senate · special | Brown +4.2 | Brown +5.9 | Not yet | Not yet |
| Michigan Senate | El-Sayed +3.8 | El-Sayed +8.1 | Not yet | Not yet |
| North Carolina Senate | Cooper +9.0 | Cooper +12.6 | Not yet | Not yet |
| Georgia Senate | Ossoff +7.1 | Ossoff +11.0 | Not yet | Not yet |
| Ohio governor | Acton +2.0 | Acton +3.5 | Not yet | Not yet |
| Iowa governor | Sand +4.0 | Sand +5.2 | Not yet | Not yet |
| Michigan governor | Benson +12.4 | Benson +16.0 | Not yet | Not yet |
| Georgia governor | Jackson +1.5 | Bottoms +1.9 | Not yet | Not yet |
| Wisconsin governor | Crowley +4.0 | Crowley +8.0 | Not yet | Not yet |
Closer means nearer to the count's margin between the two candidates. Early counts swing as different kinds of ballots are added, so a race is only scored once it is called or nearly complete. The final grade uses certified results.
Get the grade
I will email you how the bet did once the results are in. It goes out on my LITMUS weekly letter, so you will get that too, and you can leave any time.
Free. Sent by Buttondown, which holds your address.